If a U.S.-Iran peace deal actually happens this time — and that's still a big if— consumers have a long road ahead before filling up returns all the way to the good old days of early 2026.
Why it matters: Even if the Strait of Hormuz opened right away, pump prices will likely remain higher — maybe a lot higher — than pre-war levels at least through the midterm elections.
U.S. retail prices are tethered to global oil markets that will be in turmoil for a while.
The average U.S. price for regular gasoline was $4.54 per gallon on Wednesday, compared to just under $3 pre-war, per AAA data.
What we're watching: Some price relief would come within days ofthe Strait of Hormuz truly reopening, per Patrick De Haan of the market data and analysis firm GasBuddy.
But the rest of the recovery would take longer. He sees prices coming down by about a third of the wartime jump within one to three months.
"The next third might take 3-6 months, and we'd finally get back to pre-war prices I'd say right now in early/mid 2027," De Haan, the firm's head of petroleum analysis, tells me via email.
Between the lines: The reasons it will take so long are rooted in both global fuel movements and the economics of retail pricing at home.
Reviving oil loadings and transit from the Mideast will take time, and so will bringing back thecrude production that Persian Gulf producers dialed downwhen export routes were cut off.
"Even assuming a true and lasting end to the military conflict, it would still be several months before traffic through the Strait of Hormuz returns to its pre-war level," Rob Smith, a top fuels analyst with S&P Global Energy, said via email.
Other analysts agree. The consultancy Rystad Energy, in a note, argues that a 30-day phased reopening of the Strait would be an "optimistic scenario," and "meaningful volume recovery would happen in June at the earliest."
How it works: In the short term, even when oil prices fall — which they have already this week on news of progress toward a deal — gas stations are working through the higher cost inventory they bought when prices were higher.
It's one of the reasons market-watchers point out the "rocket and feathers" dynamic — retail fuel costs shoot up when oil prices do, but can decline slowly even when crude falls sharply.
Threat level: One big unknown is what "normal" in the Strait of Hormuz will even mean in the future.
"Having demonstrated it once, Iran can now credibly threaten to shut down the Strait of Hormuz in the future. Its military capabilities have been degraded but not destroyed. It would take little effort for Iran to deter shippers from resuming traffic," he writes.
One of his recommendations is for U.S. development finance agencies supporting projects in the region to expand pipeline networks to bypass the Strait.
The bottom line: "U.S. gasoline prices would ... decline in the months following an end to the war but would be unlikely to return to pre-war levels before the end of the year," said Smith, the S&P analyst.
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Elon Musk's surprise Anthropic deal allows him to accomplish two things at once: turn unused compute into revenue before an expected SpaceX IPO next month — and stick it to his archrival, Sam Altman.
Why it matters: Musk went from calling Anthropic "evil" to doing business with it in three months, showing how quickly competition can give way to strategic necessity in the AI race.
The big picture: The deal helps Anthropic address one of its most pressing problems — a severe compute deficit. The company saw "80x growth per year in revenue and usage" for the first quarter of 2026, CEO Dario Amodei said at a developer conference Wednesday, when it only planned for 10x.
That demand spike gave the AI lab "difficulties with compute," Amodei added, referencing recent usage limits that have frustrated customers.
Enter SpaceX, which will provide the AI lab with the entire capacity of its Colossus 1 data center, amounting to more than 300 megawatts of new capacity (over 220,000 Nvidia GPUs) within the month.
xAI, Musk's AI lab that SpaceX acquired, will continue to run off Colossus 2, a separate supercomputer.
"As part of this agreement, Anthropic also expressed interest in partnering to develop multiple gigawatts of orbital AI compute capacity," SpaceX said in a blog post.
The intrigue: The deal comes as Musk is embroiled in a lawsuit against OpenAI, the AI lab he co-founded that also happens to be Anthropic's biggest competitor.
"Elon's enemy is Sam. Dario's enemy is Sam. Enemy of my enemy is a compute partner," Ben Pouladian, who does tech market research, wrote on X.
Musk publicly attacked Anthropic on X in February, calling it "misanthropic" in response to the AI lab announcing its $380 billion post-money valuation. (Anthropic is now expected to be valued closer to $900 billion.)
Now, Musk says he "was impressed" after meeting with senior Anthropic leaders last week.
Follow the money: It's not just about personalities or competition. The deal makes financial sense for both parties, especially as Musk's xAI has a very different demand curve than Anthropic.
Musk has a history of over-investing in infrastructure relative to product demand, PitchBook's Harrison Rolfes tells Axios via email. (In 2024, OpenAI scooped up capacity originally intended for Musk.)
"xAI's Colossus 1 ended up with capacity that Grok's user base never grew into," Rolfes said.
By leasing that capacity to Anthropic, Musk turns an idle, expensive asset into a high-margin revenue stream for SpaceX, just in time for its June S-1 filing. That will allow him to avoid a multi-billion dollar write-down on unused chip capacity before the company is expected to go public.
Instead, SpaceX can go public with Anthropic as a customer.
Yes, but: Musk wouldn't have lent this spare capacity to a competing AI lab if he had the same demand problem Amodei describes having at Anthropic.
The company is only utilizing 11% of the potential of its massive chips stash, per The Information, though it's unclear how much of that is driven by lack of demand, low utilization or a combination.
The bottom line: Anthropic has the cash Musk needs to shore up his company's balance sheet before it goes public, and Musk has the compute Anthropic needs to meet user demand and continue its exponential revenue growth.
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