The White House and President Trump's Board of Peace believe Hamas could sign an agreement in the coming days to begin disarming and demilitarizing the Gaza Strip, four sources familiar with the matter tell Axios.
Why it matters: A signed agreement would represent a dramatic breakthrough in implementing Trump's 20-point Gaza peace plan. But Hamas has yet to approve the deal, and Israeli officials and Western diplomats remain deeply skeptical that the group will follow through on its commitments.
State of play: The decommissioning of Hamas' weapons is the key precondition for Gaza's new Palestinian technocratic government to assume power and for the long process of reconstruction to begin.
- Large parts of Gaza were destroyed during the two-year war, and most of its 2 million Palestinian residents continue to live in tents or makeshift shelters.
- Food and other aid are entering Gaza in significant quantities, but the humanitarian situation remains dire.
- The Hamas-controlled Gaza Health Ministry says nearly 1,200 Palestinians have been killed since the Oct. 10, 2025, ceasefire. Some were Hamas militants, while many others were civilians, including children.
Driving the news: The U.S.-led Board of Peace and mediators from Egypt, Qatar and Turkey have spent months negotiating with Hamas over a 15-point plan to demilitarize Gaza and transfer authority to the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza, or NCAG.
- Hamas has resisted disarming and sought to transfer civilian authority to the NCAG while preserving its military power.
- But the Trump administration, the Board of Peace and regional mediators believe mounting external pressure and Hamas' worsening financial crisis could push the group to accept the agreement in the coming days, the sources said.
Between the lines: One source involved in the negotiations said the Trump administration and the Board of Peace have focused in recent months on cutting off Hamas' sources of funding.
- "We think we've managed to bring Hamas to a place where they can't say no," the source said.
- The negotiations are taking place in El Alamein, Egypt, and have entered their final stages, according to the sources.
- They cautioned that Hamas has yet to give final approval or sign the agreement, and the talks could still collapse.
Behind the scenes: Two sources familiar with the talks said Qatar, Turkey and especially Egypt have exerted intense pressure on Hamas to sign the agreement.
- U.S. officials and others familiar with the negotiations say a key figure is Egyptian intelligence chief Hassan Rashad, who is hosting the talks and has a close relationship with Hamas' new political leader, Khalil al-Hayya.
Iran, meanwhile, is pressing Hamas in the opposite direction.
- During a recent visit to Iran for the funeral of former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the Hamas delegation met with senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) officials, according to a source with knowledge of the meeting.
- The source told Axios the IRGC officials urged Hamas to avoid rushing into an agreement and to play for time.
Zoom in: The agreement under discussion is built around a guiding principle: one government, one legal system and one legitimate security authority in Gaza.
- All heavy and light weapons would be decommissioned over a period of six to eight months.
- Hamas would provide maps of its tunnel network, weapons-production facilities and arms depots.
- Implementation would be gradual. The new technocratic government would assume authority over each section of Gaza only after it had been verified as demilitarized.
- A new Palestinian police force, made up of thousands of Palestinians vetted by Israel's Shin Bet security service, would be trained and deployed in areas under NCAG control.
- Hamas' weapons would be placed in storage under the supervision of the NCAG and an international stabilization force, which is expected to begin deploying in Gaza.
- Anti-Hamas militias armed by Israel during the war would also be disarmed and dismantled.
- Militants who voluntarily surrender their personal weapons would be eligible for payments through a weapons buyback program.
- Hamas members would receive amnesty and be permitted to remain in Gaza.
The other side: Under the draft agreement, Israel would withdraw to the "Yellow Line," where Israeli forces were positioned after last October's ceasefire. Since then, the IDF has reoccupied some territory west of the line.
- Any further Israeli withdrawal would depend on the agreement's implementation and would take place only after Hamas surrendered its weapons.
- Israel would also halt assassinations of Hamas members in Gaza, except when it determined there was an imminent threat.
Reality check: Israeli officials remain highly skeptical that Hamas is serious about disarming.
- They believe Hamas could be seeking a tactical reprieve from the intense military, political and financial pressure it faces.
- The Israeli government is also deeply suspicious of Qatar and Turkey. Israeli officials accuse both countries of helping Hamas maneuver to preserve its political role.
Inside the room: The Gaza negotiations came up during Trump's meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday, a senior U.S. official said.
- White House envoy Steve Witkoff briefed Netanyahu on the talks, and Netanyahu said Israel supported continuing the negotiations, according to a source familiar with the meeting.
- "Everything is fully coordinated, and Israel knows all the details," a source involved in the negotiations said.
The bottom line: "This is a good deal for Israel because it takes care of the Gaza problem," the source argued. "If Hamas cheats, everything stops, and Israel will not have given up anything."
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