President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu agreed during their meeting at the White House on Wednesday that the U.S. will increase the economic pressure on Iran, mostly when it comes to oil sales to China, according to two U.S. officials briefed on the issue.
Why it matters: More than 80% of Iranian oil exports go to China. If China reduces its purchases of oil from Iran, the economic pressure on Iran would increase significantly.
- This could change Iran's calculus and push it to make more concessions regarding its nuclear program.
- U.S. officials say the maximum pressure campaign will take place alongside the nuclear talks with Iran and the ongoing military build-up in the Middle East for possible strikes if diplomacy fails.
What they're saying: "We agreed that we will go full force with maximum pressure against Iran, for example, regarding Iranian oil sales to China, a senior U.S. official said.
Zoom in: An executive order signed by Trump 10 days ago will allow the U.S. to increase the economic pressure on Iran.
- The executive order gives the secretary of State and the secretary of Commerce the possibility to recommend that the president impose tariffs of up to 25% on any country that conducts business with Iran.
Friction point: Any tariffs on China for buying Iranian oil would complicate what is already a tense relationship, with the U.S. trying to preserve the flow of vital rare earth magnets and protect a planned April summit in Beijing.
- And while Iran is a major oil producer, markets are more concerned about regional disruptions if the Iranians took action to interrupt the flow of oil from other countries.
Behind the scenes: U.S. officials said Netanyahu and Trump agreed in their meeting on Wednesday about the necessary end state — an Iran without the capability to obtain nuclear weapons.
- But they disagreed about the way to get there. Netanyahu told Trump it is impossible to make a good deal with Iran and claimed that even if a deal is signed, Iran will not abide by it, a U.S. official said.
- The U.S. official said Trump told Netanyahu he thinks there is a chance to reach a deal with Iran.
- "We'll see if it's possible. Let's give it a shot", Trump said according the the U.S. official.
In recent days, Trump asked his advisers Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner what are the odds for reaching a deal with Iran.
- A U.S. official said Witkoff and Kushner told Trump that history shows it is difficult, if not impossible, to reach a good deal with Iran.
- But they also told Trump that so far, the Iranians are saying all the right things.
- Kushner and Witkoff told Trump they will continue the negotiations and hold a tough line, and if the Iranians agree to a deal they think is satisfactory, they will give him the option so that he can decide if he wants to do it, a U.S. official said.
What's next: On Tuesday, Witkoff and Kushner will meet the Iranians in Geneva for a second round of negotiations.
- Earlier this week, Witkoff conveyed messages to the Iranians through the Omani foreign minister. The U.S. expects to receive an Iranian response at the meeting in Geneva.
- "We are sober and realistic about the Iranians. The ball is in their court. If it is not a real deal, we will not take it," a U.S. official said.
- A second U.S. official said he thinks there is "zero chance" that Iran agrees to anything the U.S. proposes or vice versa.
What to watch: Iranian journalist Ali Gholhaki wrote on X that Witkoff's messages included a U.S. proposal that Iran suspend its uranium enrichment for three to five years. After this period, Iran would allegedly be able to enrich Uranium to very low levels.
- The alleged proposal also reportedly included the removal of 450 kilograms of highly enriched Uranium the Iranians currently have outside of the country.
- The Iranian reporter claimed this proposal has been rejected by Iran.
- A U.S. official denied that the U.S. presented such a proposal to the Iranians.
Go deeper: U.S. and Iran set to hold second round of nuclear talks in Geneva
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